Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007059 0.007946 0.008905 0.010018 0.011274 0.012650 0.014272
2026-02-01 0.005525 0.006720 0.008115 0.009866 0.012010 0.014553 0.017805
2026-02-08 0.004739 0.006079 0.007731 0.009922 0.012759 0.016316 0.021134
2026-02-15 0.004129 0.005531 0.007337 0.009841 0.013233 0.017689 0.024015
2026-02-22 0.003767 0.005239 0.007209 0.010048 0.014053 0.019528 0.027628
2026-03-01 0.003304 0.004749 0.006748 0.009729 0.014086 0.020258 0.029732
2026-03-08 0.002961 0.004385 0.006417 0.009544 0.014263 0.021170 0.032135
2026-03-15 0.002653 0.004039 0.006072 0.009291 0.014298 0.021849 0.034217
2026-03-22 0.002532 0.003958 0.006107 0.009605 0.015204 0.023896 0.038569
2026-03-29 0.002397 0.003840 0.006071 0.009797 0.015924 0.025698 0.042675
2026-04-05 0.002281 0.003741 0.006052 0.010008 0.016683 0.027612 0.047117
2026-04-12 0.002113 0.003541 0.005853 0.009904 0.016903 0.028647 0.050146
2026-04-19 0.001973 0.003381 0.005711 0.009888 0.017282 0.029997 0.053881
2026-04-26 0.001822 0.003188 0.005498 0.009732 0.017404 0.030913 0.056927
2026-05-03 0.001722 0.003074 0.005411 0.009788 0.017900 0.032519 0.061368
2026-05-10 0.001609 0.002930 0.005257 0.009707 0.018136 0.033666 0.065035
2026-05-17 0.001549 0.002875 0.005259 0.009911 0.018916 0.035875 0.070936
2026-05-24 0.001421 0.002685 0.004998 0.009597 0.018678 0.036130 0.072991
2026-05-31 0.001323 0.002542 0.004813 0.009415 0.018677 0.036836 0.076006
2026-06-07 0.001224 0.002392 0.004604 0.009166 0.018522 0.037218 0.078376
2026-06-14 0.001200 0.002386 0.004672 0.009475 0.019520 0.039999 0.086048
2026-06-21 0.001164 0.002351 0.004681 0.009664 0.020282 0.042350 0.093003
2026-06-28 0.001131 0.002323 0.004700 0.009872 0.021100 0.044881 0.100576